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I was up late last night and saw a $1.10 tourney with 8 coupons guaranteed for an $11 ticket... With only 20 people registered at the time, I liked my odds of winning a ticket given my style of sit-n-go, position play, basically Im going to last longer than you proven winner strategies.
Little did I know the smart money was all over this game... When I opened up all the other tables in my tourney to watch the other players, really just to keep me busy and not blow up by being so focused on one hand and doing some stupid bluff. Over half the field had ribbons by there name! I knew i was in for tough one with my hard earned freeroll $.
So Im an hour into this thing and over 60 people have registered! Still not bad odds to make a ticket, I believe in game theory that I could play this thing 8 more times with the same avg 60 people playing and win a ticket in one of them for $11 to make some profit. Possibly 2 or 3 given my skills with a little good luck, or at least not any bad luck in my case...
Which gets me make to my question or just letting out a little frustration, I win some pots, folded some possible winners, but around chip avg all along the way trying to outlast the others to 8th place... Im in pos 9/17 working the blinds getting ready for final table to make ticket... When a rush of new people come in at end of registration! They see one maybe two hands then all in? (Insert typical bad beat story, but two in a row seems cruel). Has anyone seen this before? Is this to be expected? Can this type of game be profitable in the long run? My game theory gets a little off trying to account for dumbasses.