Avoiding The All In - Leprekahn's Blogs

I read an article with some interesting statistics concerning All ins in tournament play.

For those of you who are consumed with the odds of bad beats... read on and it might shed a different light on your outlook of these all in situations.

This blog could help all players put a different perspective on your tournament life. I think its something we already know, albeit in the back of our minds, but having it explained this way, makes it more profound and easier to understand.

Here it is:

When your a 70% favorite and are all in, most view this as an independent event and assume they will prevail. Statistically speaking, if involved in two such confrontations in a tournament, you will be out of the tourney slightly more then half the time. Face this type of confrontation three times in a tournament, you will be elimanated two thirds of the time. Yet having said this, most consider losing one of these a BAD BEAT.

These are eye opening statistics. Think of the times when you push all in and have a 3 to 1 like AK vs A9, IF you do this just twice in a tournament, you will be out half the time. It only makes sense, the more times we put ourselves in these all in situations...the higher the chance we will be elimanated from the tournament...even though we maybe a favorite in each case.

Some players may view this and think that if they have a hand they are willing to go with, and they are a 70% favorite, then they are more then happy to push. But if your not short stacked, it might be better to play hands with POT CONTROL in mind. When you push all in, you have no control if the board comes with 4 to a suit and your opponent has that suit. If you played the hand small, you could easily get off the hand now that the board is so scary. Even though you have lost the hand in this case, you are alive in the tournament. That is just one example and there are many more but I think the point is made.

If you are of the opinion that you face to many bad beats when playing your tournaments, count how many times you have gone all in. This is something Im going to pay more attention to from now on myself.

If your cognisant of POT CONTROL, your all ins should be limited, and your ITM% should increase. If you really keep track of this stat, and dont count the times you are short stacked (you have less options) and are finding that you are going all in less and less...then perhaps you will find some interesting beneficial results...

Lep

Comments

YouWereDOA

of TMT

184

8 months ago

Genius! Finally someone put this together and was able to create a solid post regarding the whole subject. While I agree with variance being somewhat higher in tournament play due to increasing blinds and so forth, I dont believe that it should be as high as most want to claim it to be.

Now, just get the absolutely ridiculous amount of tourney players who seem to love shoving all the time to understand this and holy hell, it may not seem like a near constant bingo fest.

Well done and thanks

JoeSchmo

of PokeYourMomsFace

8 months ago

The thing is tho Lep, if ur committing urself to be all-in PF, its one of 2 reasons. 1, ur either the shortstack(12BBs or less once antes kick in, M=6 or so) and you have no choice but to shove alot of the time because youre too short to raise n make a decision on the flop of what to do so there is no chance of trying to have pot control. Or 2, its close to the ITM bubble or FT bubble, possibly even a pay jump and youve got a big stack and dont want to be faced w/the decision to call or not to call a shortstack shove behind your raise so you jam to leave them to make the decision of are their cards strong enough to make a call for their tournament life. Im not disputing the fact that even when ur a 70/30 fave that that 30% is gonna come eventually, just that alot of the times you dont have the option of putting in that raise to control the pot.

Leprekahn

of Villains Of The Felt

569

8 months ago

I feel there is alot of room of pot control in a tournament and I do it all the time. But the blog is more about putting into perspective the odds of a bad beat. Getting ko'd out of a tournament from a 3 outer etc is not so "crazy" as it seems. In reality, its actually probable.

monkey

of The Loonies

399

8 months ago

I'm sure some pro or other wrote a book called ' avoiding the all in '.... ' avoiding the river ' would be another most worthy tome....

a load of skill and a load of luck is needed to win / go deep...at best the good player needs not to ' get unlucky '....i also think i have never gone deep without sucking out against the odds....

mtts are a very long term game...sometimes ya can go months without a score...sometimes ya get a handful of deep finishes in the same week...and variance plays a very big part....

its funny...lol..all ya have to do to win a tourney is never go all in for the whole duration of the game...( guess thats all sorted then..see ya at the ft of the main event...ed..)

good post matey...:)

sharking

of PokeYourMomsFace

177

8 months ago

This is a really good blog on the importance of understanding how often bad beats occur. While going all in is a good tactic, you should do so when your stack isn't at risk but your opponents are. This gives you a significant amount more fold equity if you are putting your opponents at risk, instead of your own stack. Going all in verse shorties is effective because if you lose, you still have a chance to run your stack up. I think JoeSchmo's response is really appropriate on the two reasons why we go all in. I would also add if we have the nuts and we know we can get a call.

ImQ1369

of Beasts of Burden

167

8 months ago

AHHHHHHHHH LEP........Some very good material there & lots of things to stay on top of, but if one does like you said it could be VERY BENEFICIAL in the long run! thanks friend for the clear & direct pointers! Nice to grasp the entire message after reading it one time! LMAO

..... xoxox.......see you on the felt SOON I hope my friend!!! ...... xoxox ......... Chelle

gridlock10

of Villains 2

329

8 months ago

Excellent blog Lep ! I believe I have become a more consistent player over the last few months ( please don’t check my latest games ) by staying out of the big raised pots and all-in hands early in the game . I believe that being very patient and seeing more hands and waiting for the right opportunity to present itself , the nuts or very close to it , is very beneficial in the long run ! This also gives you a tight table image that you may be able to use against your opponents later in the game . The deeper you can get in a game , also gives you a chance to watch and learn about your opponents which in turn will improve your game if you are paying attention . Limiting your all-ins in most situations , to only when your stack isn't at risk but your opponents are or going all in versus a short stack is extremely effective if you have the patience to do it ! I believe that this really works for me but you still have to find what really works for you !

Edited by gridlock10 8 months ago

mygameisgarbage

of DonkQuixotesCrew

265

4 months ago

Good article!

donkinbuck

of Villains 2

2104

4 months ago

Everyone should read this,excellent article Lep...at the beginning of a tourny should you fold AA to an all in with multiple callers,OBViously,you cant win a tourny on the 1st hand only lose it,excellent read lep thanks!!

Leprekahn

of Villains Of The Felt

569

4 months ago

Thank you!

Obviously tournament structure matters....and if you are in a deep stacked tournament structure....playing with pot control goes a long way to controlling bad beats against you.....which in turn gives you more time in a tournament for your skill to shine.

I see so many players create a huge pot with a marginal holding like top pair just because they are so afraid to get sucked out on. They create such a huge pot because they think their top pair top kicker is vulnerable to their opponents flopped flush draw. However, they only realize their opponent maybe has a flopped set instead of flush draw when they shove over your bet on the turn. Now you put so much into the pot you feel committed....next thing u are saying how unlucky you are and its such a cooler!!!

Meanwhile an experience player in ur shoes would only bet 1/2 to 2/3rds pot on the flop instead of an overbet.....and either betting 1/2 pot on turn or even checking behind thinking they are in a way behind or way ahead situation.

An experienced player would lose the minimum on this hand, and the fish go broke.

Just like the Texas Dolly said, "Poker is about losing the least when you flush losses to a full house and winning the most when you full house beats a flush"

Edited by Leprekahn 4 months ago

owlfart

1 month ago

Lep: Grid just walked me thru how to use this site. I found your friend request and hit "y." Now that we are friends, what do we do with this information, for example find each other at an active table? Or just text more easily?

Also on carbon I have a lot of friends from VOTF. I suppose there is a way on that ring and tournament page to click and join a table? How?

Greetings, and I'll be more active on this site now.

Owl

PS: Had never read an article about the dangers of all in, so this article was educational. What I have figured out from raw experience is not putting my neck on the block, so I do "test" the pot and give myself a way to back out. [I guess that is what "pot control" means?] Don't Bogart that joint my friend!

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