Futures

Cincinnati Bengals Season Win Total

ODDS: +120
Cincinnati Bengals Season Win Total

Although we still have no idea when – or even if – the 2020 NFL season will get underway thanks to the COVID-19 pandemic continuing to wreak havoc in the US and abroad, that hasn’t stopped NFL bookmakers from releasing futures and season win-total lines to, at the very least, give football bettors something to dream about. So with the NFL Draft now behind us, and a number of the marquee players already getting settled into new uniforms, let’s look ahead to better times when tailgate parties are plentiful and the betting-lines long.

Yesterday I spoke about fading the hype of the Tennessee Titans’ recent success and today I want to look at a similar situation, albeit on the polar opposite of the spectrum: the Cincinnati Bengals.

With Cincity drafting consensus #1 pick and Heisman Trophy winner Joe Burrow, it’s been quite some time since the books have had to take this much “over” money on the Bengals’ season win total, which currently sits at over/under 5.5.

However, I, for one, am not sold. First off, let’s not forget that it was just a few months back when Cincinnati put up an impressive 11 consecutive losses en route to a league-worst 2-14 record – with their only two wins coming in the final weeks of the season against the equally depressing Jets and Browns, who by that point had nothing left to play for. Most notably, Cincinnati’s offensive line struggled mightily last season, a weakness conventional wisdom would have expected them to address through the draft. However, with the Bengals being anything but conventional, they instead elected to wait until the 6th round to give Burrow some support up front, choosing to spend their next pick on a WR and three more on linebackers (which, to be fair, they were in desperate need of as well).

So regardless of how excited the people of Cincinnati are about the less-mullety Tiger King, and no matter how much value they got through the draft at other positions, counting on a rookie QB to learn on the fly without solid protection is not a situation many have prospered in, and definitely not one I am interested in trusting with my betting dollars. In fact, it seems like such a precarious position to be in that I feel confident fading the Burrow hype and laying some dollars on the Bengals NOT yet being a 6 win team. And I stand by that.

Yaniv Son is a long-time sports-bettor and former professional poker player turned poker coach and author at spinandgostrategy.com