Denver Broncos 2020 Season Win Total
Although we still have no idea when – or even if – the 2020 NFL season will get underway thanks to the COVID-19 pandemic continuing to wreak havoc in the US and abroad, that hasn’t stopped NFL bookmakers from releasing futures and season win-total lines to, at the very least, give football bettors something to dream about. So with the NFL Draft now behind us, and a number of the marquee players already getting settled into new uniforms, let’s look ahead to better times when tailgate parties are plentiful and the betting-lines long.
Yesterday I wrote about hopping aboard a popular betting train and today I want to explore shorting a market very few are paying attention to: the Denver Broncos under 7.5 wins. On first look, this most likely seems like a slam-dunk over with the Broncos having one of the better drafts of the offseason as well as signing Melvin Gordon, Graham Glasgow, Jurrell Casey, and AJ Buoye. However, Vegas isn’t in the habit of giving bettors layups and sharp bettors have clearly not hammered the over even after all of Denver’s upgrades, most likely due to a still unproven QB entering his sophomore slump year and the mighty defense from last season seeing a high turnover this off-season.
Additionally, I expect the AFC West to be a deceptively tough division to play 6 games against this season. Of course you have the World Champion Kansas City Chiefs at the (very distant) top – so as a Broncos bettor you’re already starting two in the hole at least 80-90% of the time. Then you also have two games against the LA Chargers who I’ve already pegged as an ‘over’ team and may very well sweep the two head-to-head games as well. Finally, you have a Las Vegas Raiders team who should be hyper motivated to give their new fans something to cheer about, be it in the new stadium or while watching from inside a hazmat suit at home. I would personally not at all be surprised to see the Broncos go 2-4 or even 1-5 within the division now that teams have more tape on Drew Lock, and when you consider they’ll still have to play games against the likes of the Saints, Patriots, Bills, and Niners, and suddenly getting to 8 wins starts seeming like a real tough road. In fact, when accounting for league-wide over/under lines, the Broncos are set to play the 5th toughest schedule in the league.
So regardless of how many offensive weapons Mr. Lock has – and he does have many – in my opinion the numbers – both the ones on the field and those from inside the betting books, just don’t add up to Denver covering the Over 7.5 line; sorry Broncos fans.
Yaniv Son is a long-time sports-bettor and former professional poker player turned poker coach and author at spinandgostrategy.com