Green Bay Packers @ KC Chiefs

ODDS: +/- 3 4/20 15:00 ET
Green Bay Packers @ KC Chiefs

In another SIMS analysis defined by which matchup has the potential to cause the public the most pain, the “irl” Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs will play host to the Green Bay Packers in a classic rematch of the first SB in NFL history, albeit with present-day rosters. And while many fans would expect the Chiefs to hold the player-ratings advantage on the field, the Packers actually hold a 13-11 advantage when it comes to players rated above an 80 – a fact that on deeper thought appears to make sense with the Packers having been expected to dominate on the defensive side of the ball last season before suffering through some turbulence in the 2nd half of the campaign and eventually flaming out short of their championship expectations.

With that said, judging by the stream chat-box and betting line-movement, KC – who’s already won one SIMS tournament this Covid season – has been an incredibly popular pick so far and I see no reason to think that wouldn’t continue today. But as I covered in one of the breakdowns from last week (which resulted in a huge W for us backing the Carolina Panthers vs the chalk Saints), any time the public is expected to be all over the favourite, value opens up on the underdog.

And although past results are not an indicator of future success – especially when discussing a make-believe game run by a computer simulation – relying on sound betting philosophy to estimate value seems as good a strategy as any when chasing that magical 53% success rate needed to be a profitable bettor.

That’s all for today, stay safe out in there and, as always, remember to never bet more than you can afford to lose.

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Yaniv Son is a former professional poker player and long-time sports-bettor who has recently brought his talents to the SIMS landscape in the hopes of easing the monotony of a sportless COVID-19 world.