Indianapolis Colts Vs Minnesota Vikings Betting Breakdown
Yesterday I wrote about what I expect to be one of the biggest Week 2 overreactions from the betting market and today I’d like to cover another: the Indianapolis Colts.
After finding himself trapped in a version of The Matrix where Agent Smith always wins, Philip Rivers, once again, threw two critical interceptions down the stretch to cost his team the game, this time as an 8 point favorite. Bettors like me who had the misfortune of betting on the Chargers in 2019 (more times than I care to admit) based on a philosophical edge ‘on paper’, likely found themselves shaking their head in disbelief as Rivers somehow managed to follow last season’s game-script to a T with another late-game collapse in an otherwise solid box-score. But, unlike the talking heads and recreational players, it is that very same box-score where we need to step away from our emotions and look for the cold-hard facts beyond the narratives, so let’s do that now.
First off: Rivers. Apart from the INTs, Rivers actually had himself a strong game going 36/46 for 363 with a touchdown pass, even after losing his lead running-back early. Not only did Rivers complete passes to 9 different players, but 7 of them averaged 9 yard or more per reception. In fact, the Colts were so incredibly efficient on offense that they didn’t have to punt a single time all game! Those are not exactly the type of stats that you’d expect to find in a losing effort; and if we were to run it back 100 times they’d likely not lose more than a handful, if that.
With that level of efficiency – and playing behind one of the best offensive lines in the game – odds favor a Colts bounce-back game against a Vikings secondary that got absolutely torched by a good but not great Packers offense who still managed to put up 364 yards through the air en route to a 43-point effort. In fact, unfortunately for Purple Gang, the Colts/Vikings matchup feels eerily similar to Minnesota’s game this past Sunday, with an experienced gunslinger likely to have plenty of time in the pocket (the Vikings managed 0 sacks and just 2 hits playing against a much inferior OLine than the one they’ll be facing in Week 2), all the while counting on a young, unproven secondary to stop the bleeding.
So while the Rivers curse got off to an unnerving start in Indianapolis, it’s impossible for an analytics-obsessed bettor like myself to ignore the numbers in favor of the narrative. I simply refuse. Give me a unit on the Colts and another in-game if they fall behind early.
Yaniv Son is a long-time sports-bettor and former professional poker player turned poker coach and author at spinandgostrategy.com