Futures

New Orleans Saints 2020 Season Win Total

ODDS: -120
New Orleans Saints 2020 Season Win Total

Although we still have no idea when – or even if – the 2020 NFL season will get underway thanks to the COVID-19 pandemic continuing to wreak havoc in the US and abroad, that hasn’t stopped NFL bookmakers from releasing futures and season win-total lines to, at the very least, give football bettors something to dream about. So with the NFL Draft now behind us, and a number of the marquee players already getting settled into new uniforms, let’s look ahead to better times when tailgate parties are plentiful and the betting-lines long.

Yesterday I wrote about riding the over on the team of the (last) decade and today I’d like to flip bearish once again and point to another season-win-total I like to the Under: the New Orleans Saints under 10.5 win (-120 odds)

Although I don’t adhere to it religiously, there is an NFL betting philosophy I try to keep in mind which says you generally want to be betting team totals towards the middle, meaning betting the Under on teams with high win-totals and betting the Over on low win-totals. And although following this method while betting on the Saints would have gotten your bankroll annihilated over the past few years, I have a feeling that this might just be the year to take a shot at it; though I will admit the feeling is not a particularly strong one.

The argument for fading the Saints in 2020 goes something like this:

  • Last year the Saints went a combined 5-1 against their division opponents the Bucs, Falcons, and Panthers, a record that will be tough to replicate with all three teams making considerable improvements this off-season. In fact, I expect both the Falcons and Panthers to surprise some people while exceeding their own win-totals, and we all know about the changes Tampa Bay has made since last year after bringing in Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski.
  • Last season the Saints had the luxury of the 10th easiest schedule in the NFL. However in 2020, based on their opponents’ win-totals numbers, New Orleans will play the 9th toughest.
  • Drew Brees is without a doubt at the tail-end of his career, meaning a drop-off in abilities is an unavoidable reality the Saints will have to deal with. As Brees gets older, his injury risk increases too, something we saw play out in 2019 when he was forced to miss nearly a third of the season. And although New Orleans managed to go a perfect 5-0 during that stretch riding Teddy Bridgewater’s hot hand, if Brees is forced to miss time again in 2020, the Saints are unlikely to be able to replicate that type of success playing in a much tougher division in front of Mr. Interception himself, Jameis Winston.

With that said, New Orleans did manage to make some off-season splashes, in particular signing exceptional WR talent Emmanuel Sanders to help open up the field for Saints MVP Michael Thomas as well as fortifying an already stellar offensive line by drafting Michigan lineman Cesar Ruiz. So although my lean is betting the Saints win-total back towards the middle and playing the Under, I believe this to be one of the thinnest edges in the season-win-total market and as such wouldn’t fault anyone for fading it entirely.

Yaniv Son is a long-time sports-bettor and former professional poker player turned poker coach and author at spinandgostrategy.com