Since September 2018, Ethereum price has been moving inside an extended range, the top of which was finally reached again earlier this month for the first time in nearly two years before getting soundly rejected last week. Now price sits in what seems like a bit of no-man’s-land, just 6% above the midline of the long-term range. ETH bulls will be looking for the line to hold, potentially forming a short reaccumulation range atop it, before heading back to retest the top of the weekly range at around 0.04 BTC some 30% above the midline.
Should the retest fail, the support/resistance zone below will likely need to be retested first at 0.027 BTC and then at 0.023 BTC, making it a drop of between 20 and 32% from the current price. A strong weekly close below these levels would likely bring some pain for Bulls and put Ethereum bears firmly in control.
From an FA perspective, the fact that we are in a Bitcoin bull-market (in no small part thanks to the continuous deflationary money-printing monster that is the Federal Reserve) and that Ethereum is the vehicle for the DeFi (decentralized finance) projects that have seen one explosive price-appreciation run after another over the past few months, one would have to give preference to the Bull-case for Ethereum, though nothing is a certainty in the cryptosphere, particularly in a time like 2020 when Black Swans (major unforeseen events affecting price a la COVID-19) seem to be more the norm than the exception.
So regardless of whether you find yourself leaning towards a bull or bear bias, in trading – as in poker – the strategy with the highest long-term expectation is to have a plan for as many scenarios as possible and approaching each unique situation based on the cards you are dealt.