The U.S. presidential election remains in doubt and poker Twitter is still full of juicy opinions as the counting process continues into Thursday (and likely well beyond).
President Donald Trump remains a heavy underdog to earn re-election. Joe Biden, two days after Election Day, appears to be in line to become the 46th President of the United States. As it stands, Biden has won 253 Electoral votes, while the incumbent president has 214.
There are still five states in doubt as of Thursday morning as both candidates are trying to get to the required 270 EC votes to win. Nevada (6 EC votes) and Arizona (11 EC votes) appear to be leaning towards Biden, and that would be enough to wrap up the election. But if Trump were to somehow squeak out one of those states (or both), that opens up a path to victory.
Trump is currently leading the vote count in Pennsylvania (20 EC votes), Georgia (16 EC votes), and North Carolina (15 EC votes). If he takes one of the two western states and then holds in the eastern states, he can surpass 270 Electoral College votes and remain in office for another four years.
But the oddsmakers don’t have much confidence in that happening. As of Thursday morning, Biden is a -770 favorite to win. That is due to the expected victories in Nevada and Arizona, which would put him over the top. And even if he doesn’t earn those wins, he wraps up the election by winning Pennsylvania, a state that many believe he will eventually take.
Poker players waiting patiently
If you’re looking for some interesting commentary on the election results, poker Twitter is the place to be. Poker pros such as Matt Glantz, Nate Silver, Bart Hanson, Mike Matusow, and others are providing some unique takes on the hotly contested election.
Matusow is an avid Trump supporter and Covid denier (he claims it’s all a “hoax,” without any supporting evidence). He’s been pushing some wild conspiracy theories related to the election in the past day, including an accusation about a dead man in Michigan supposedly voting for Joe Biden.
Glantz is a liberal who voted for and has money on Biden winning. He’s been quite giddy the past 24 hours as he fully anticipates his candidate becoming the next POTUS.
The numbers are way worse for Trump than the media understands. There is no escape. As far fetched as it seems right now, Trump could concede in the next 48 hrs.
— Matt Glantz (@MattGlantz) November 5, 2020
“The numbers are way worse for Trump than the media understands. There is no escape. As far fetched as it seems right now, Trump could concede in the next 48 hrs,” Glantz wrote.
Andrew Barber, who also bet on Biden to win, wanted to play a game. He’s offering up a prize to the follower who can most accurately guess the date in which Trump concedes, if that date ever happens.
“Respond to this thread with the date that Trump will concede the race to Biden. You must guess a date. I’ll mail a prize to the first person who guesses the correct date,” Barber posted.
David Tuchman is making the “never” prediction on Barber’s question. The poker commentator used a poker analogy to assess Trump’s odds of winning the election.
For Trump to win #Elections2020 he needs to beat AA with 55, then win with 77 vs AQ and then hold with QJ vs an over card flush draw combo …
That’s never happened right?
— David Tuchman (@TuckonSports) November 4, 2020
Mike McDonald pondered a serious hypothetical that could conceivably come to fruition. What if Trump loses and refuses to leave office?
Question for pro-gun republicans. Trump loses in court, refuses to leave, civil war breaks out. Do you fight for the left or the right?
I'm in a left-dominated bubble where most people think the right likes Trump more than they like the democratic process. Are they right?
— Mike McDonald (@MikeMcDonald89) November 5, 2020
“Question for pro-gun republicans. Trump loses in court, refuses to leave, civil war breaks out. Do you fight for the left or the right? I’m in a left-dominated bubble where most people think the right likes Trump more than they like the democratic process. Are they right?” McDonald asked.
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