Tom Dwan tricks Nate Silver into revealing book details on Brandon Adam’s podcast

Jon Pill
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Posted on: April 10, 2021 12:46 pm EDT

Brandon Adam’s latest podcast, released yesterday, was a rare two-for-one event. Adams paired up poker legend Tom Dwan and stats-maven Nate Silver. One calls elections, the other never calls if he can raise.

Tom Dwan is big business right now. There is the return of High Stakes Poker, the playground in which he first rose to fame. And there is his sponsorship with Poker Kings. Not to mention the fact that he is currently willing to do interviews after years of media silence.

Dwan used to be impossible to pin down. Now he seems to be everywhere at once.

“I’m on a podcast tear,” Dwan tweeted. “The last podcast we did @badams78 , we talked about the political acceptance of (seemingly) endless stimulus/free money. I meant to ask you and @NateSilver538 your thoughts of how that develops both in the U.S.A. and [world]. Any guesses?”

Their conversation ranges pretty widely over the hundred-minute run time of the podcast. Their chat swings from Nate Silver’s new book to NFTs to modeling the pandemic.

The book is going to be somewhat gambling-related, “especially if you define gambling rather broadly,” Silver says. But he’s trying to play his hand close to his chest for the moment. Despite this, Dwan manages to get a few details out of him: It’s going to be about professionals who deal in risk and will touch on gambling, investment, cryptocurrencies, and possibly even poker.

One wonders if Dwan’s been interviewed for a chapter.

Who’s on first?

Brandon Adam’s podcast has become sporadic listening for many in the poker community with its long, conversational format. Most episodes are with one person. Like the episode with Doug Polk in February hot off his win over DNegs. Or the episode with Jennifer Shahade in October 2020, when we all took chess up again after The Queen’s Gambit.

Nate Silver is known to anyone with even a vague interest in U.S. politics. His site, FiveThirtyEight, is the first port of call for election odds and statistical models.

Silver got his first big break when he sold Baseball Prospectus, a piece of software designed to predict the performance and career development of baseball players. Now he does the same thing, but for countries.

He also plays a bit of poker, turning pro for a few years in the mid-2000s. He still occasionally plays. In the past, he even used to play the WSOP.

On the podcast, Tom Dwan feels like a good match for Silver. They are both similarly sharp in their fields, similarly socially awkward, and both obsessed with the art of probability and prognostication.

It’s pretty clear from the conversation that Dwan and Silver get along well. Both have comfort with statistical thinking, or “guessing” as Dwan puts it. And they revel in the kind of nerdy breaking down of decision-making processes. Frankly, they should get their own show together.

You can watch the full podcast below, or find it on most podcasting services.

Featured image source: Flickr by World Poker Tour