In 2006, the Main Event at the World Series of Poker reached new heights with a record-setting field of 8,773. By all measures, poker was on the rise – in terms of both cultural popularity and tournament field sizes. The following year, however, the Main Event drew a field of only 6,358. In 2008, the field size rose slightly to 6,844, but failed to reach the levels seen just a couple of years prior. Then, in 2009, the numbers dipped again to 6,494 – which begs the obvious question: why?
With the game still riding high from the Moneymaker Boom and fresh off of a record-breaking summer at the World Series, logic would dictate continued growth. Instead, we saw the numbers trend in the opposite direction. In late 2007, the housing market in the United States began to decline – rapidly. By the autumn of 2008, several US-based banks and financial institutions had filed for bankruptcy and The Great Recession was in full bore.
In recent weeks, the White House's tariff policy has lead to widespread uncertainty and volatility in the marketplace. On Monday, April 21, major stock indexes fell further, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average on pace for its worst April since 1932. While stock prices tumble, the US dollar index – a measures of the dollar's strength against six foreign currencies – has fallen to its lowest level in more than three years.
While the current economic landscape doesn't resemble the late 2000s – yet – uncertainty still lingers. With that in mind, what will the turnout this summer at the World Series of Poker look like? Will history repeat itself with another downturn in Main Event participation?
PokerOrg reached out to a few financially-minded members of the community with these questions in mind.
Will history repeat itself?
Mohsin Charania, a winner of poker's Triple Crown who transitioned into the finance world, tells us, “I think the main kicker on whether Main Event turnout is affected is the fact that the World Series doesn’t increase the buy-in. I would say that the people who save up for the Main Event have probably already done that.”
Charania continues, “One quick indicator I was looking at is that the US Dollar is getting significantly weaker. The immediate impact of that is other currencies are getting stronger. I think you can make the connection that you might see more European or international players because, currency-wise, they’re getting more bang for their buck coming to America.”
While the future of traditional economic markets remains unclear, the cryptocurrency markets tell a different story. Cryptocurrency is currently down from recent all-time highs, but remains strong in the macro view. With many high-level poker players holding various cryptocurrencies, Charania notes that the large buy-in events should see similar turnouts.
“The fact that crypto is strong – and a lot of poker players hold crypto – so funnily enough I would say the super high buy-ins should continue to get players," Charania tells us.
Still, Charania agrees that if the economic landscape continues to deteriorate, we could see a shift in attendance akin to the situation in 2007-09.
“The question becomes, does it get really bad or is this just the end?" he asks. "If this is the end, the fact that the buy-ins don’t go up will probably cancel out any effect on the numbers. If this continues and gets worse I think that’s a very reasonable argument based on the historical data."
'Bitcoin's doing fine, right?'
Brian Rast, the 2023 inductee to the Poker Hall of Fame and known cryptocurrency enthusiast, holds a similar viewpoint to Charania. While he recognizes the economic uncertainty at play, he doesn't think the consequences will come to bear this summer.
"My theory is that if there's a change in attendance at the WSOP, it's likely not about this," Rast tells us. "Obviously, the economy will affect how much money poker players have. It could be one factor, but I really doubt it would be the only one."
"I don't view this year as being materially different, even though I would agree that there's more uncertainty about the future," Rast continues.
Like Charania, Rast believes that the high amount of crossover between the poker and cryptocurrency communities will prove beneficial to attendance at the World Series of Poker this summer – especially when it comes to the high end of the buy-in range.
"Almost everyone who plays high rollers and nosebleed stakes are involved in crypto. Even if you take those people out, I would guess that low level pros or amateurs are probably more likely to own Bitcoin than the average person," Rast explains.
"Bitcoin's doing fine, right? Yeah, it's down from the all-time high, but if you sell half a Bitcoin that pays for a pretty nice schedule of events. Things are down a little bit, but they're higher than they ever were last April."
'People always find money for thrills'
Alexander Fitzgerald, poker strategy author and coach, thinks that people will always find the money to stay in action – to chase the thrill of the game. PokerOrg's Craig Tapscott spoke with Fitzgerald and asked his opinion on whether the volatility in the marketplace could keep players away from the World Series of Poker.
"People always find money for thrills," Fitzgerald responds. "There's nothing more thrilling than poker. So, even if people are hurting, there are still some small buy-ins, and there is always that opportunity."
Other considerations on attendance
Whether the financial situation at hand has an effect on attendance will remain unclear until the numbers are in. Still, there are other factors at play that could come into the equation. When asked what he thought the biggest story of the summer might be, Dara O’Kearney posited that the series could end up being the most American-centric in years.
"I have a strong suspicion it will be the most American WSOP in a long time, with a lot fewer players traveling from abroad," O'Kearney says.
Vanessa Kade recently posted a poll for her Twitter/X followers inquiring as to whether they were attending the World Series of Poker in Las Vegas this summer. Of the 299 responses, 33.8% of self-identified usual attendees expressed their intentions to return while only 17.7% of the same crowd were committed to not attending. Interestingly, 8.7% of responders revealed that they would still attend, but play a reduced schedule of events.
'Having GGPoker behind that brand is going to boost numbers'
Longtime player Eugene Katchalov takes an alternative view to O'Kearney. In Katchalov's point of view, recent policy initiatives from the current presidential administration shouldn't affect attendance.
"I don't think America is less welcoming to visitors, I certainly wouldn't agree with that," Katchalov begins. "In terms of numbers, I don't think the politics of the US are going to influence numbers very much. I do think it'll be more about things like taxes or crypto prices, I think those more practical things are more likely to impact numbers of players."
With this theory as his basis, Katchalov doesn't envision a situation in which poker players avoid the World Series due to fear of logistical issues.
"The reason I don't see it changing much in terms of politics is because I can't see that someone from Europe, say, who’s dreaming to play in the World Series, is suddenly not going to come play just because there's a new administration in the White House," Katchalov theorizes. "It just seems like nonsense to me, like what are you afraid of? It seems like, if that's the case, it's going to be such small numbers that it wouldn't really make an impact."
Katchalov also notes that the impact of GGPoker's purchase of the World Series of Poker brand could see an influx of players due to satellites events running on the site.
"I think also, with GGPoker buying the World Series of Poker, I would assume having GGPoker behind that brand is going to boost the numbers a lot," Katchalov tells us. "And I would assume — even though I don't play on GGPoker personally — that they're probably running a lot of satellites and they would want to send a lot of players there with packages. Those are the important factors that I would look at."
With the WSOP just over a month away, it seems confidence is high that the growth the series has enjoyed over recent years will continue. Of course, only time will tell, and PokerOrg will be ever-present in Las Vegas throughout the WSOP to bring you all the news as it happens.
Images courtesy of World Poker Tour/Alin Ivanov/Joe Giron.
