Derek Kwan: Is WSOP’s December battle with WPT good for poker?

Competition between businesses has always driven lower prices, higher quality, more choices, and greater innovation for consumers. So having WSOP, WPT, and other operators and cardrooms battling for attention has created a thriving ecosystem for live poker tournament players.

However, too much competition can have a downside.

One of the biggest drivers of poker tournament attendance, if not the biggest, is the size of the prize pool. Too many tournament series stomping on each other’s schedules can split the player base, causing smaller individual events overall. On the other hand, not enough competitors and you’d see sky-high rake and deteriorating service, because players would have no alternatives.

WPT smashed its guarantee for the 2022 World Championship – but then WSOP announced its new Paradise festival in 2023.

WSOP vs. WPT

 So, what happens when the two biggest guns in our industry go head-to-head at the same time in December?

WPT came first in 2022 and crushed its $15M guarantee for the $10k buy-in Main Event with a whopping $29M prize pool. The next year, it really went for it, increasing the guarantee to an astounding $40M. 

But WSOP introduced its own December series in the Bahamas in 2023 with a $15M guaranteed main, with a $5k buy-in, contributing to WPT missing its guarantee by $2.4M. The war was on!

In 2025, WSOP is back with its Super Main Event – a $25k buy-in with a $60M guarantee, even though it missed its $50M guarantee by $550,000 in 2024. So even with a guarantee that feels fairly risky for an overlay, WSOP is choosing to go even higher, which is definitely a good thing for players. Who cares if fewer people come if the prize pool is $60M?

But there are risky long-term impacts to missed guarantees, as operators will become gun-shy with too much overlay risk, and things might start going in a bad direction. 

As a direct example, WPT hasn't had a guarantee at all for the World Championship Main two years in a row after its miss. However, it has reinvested in the series through alternative promotions, which are detailed below.

Liv Boeree at the 2024 WSOP Super Main Event, which missed its $50 million guarantee.

WSOP incentives

Let’s get to the actual incentives. First, for WSOP, if you won a ring this year, instead of the now discontinued Tournament of Champions, you got a $5k package to WSOP Paradise, covering a $2,500 buy-in to the Circuit Mystery Bounty event, a 6-night stay at Atlantis Resort, and a complimentary dinner buffet during your stay.

If you cashed seven times or more in 2025 WSOP bracelet events, cashed the Main Event, or won a bracelet, you get the following bonuses in the $25k Main:

If you qualify for those two incentives alone and can either afford or can satellite into the Main, it objectively seems like lighting money on fire by not going.

And there were plenty of other incentives too: 

• Bubble protection from GGPoker: if you’re the bubble boy, your buy-in is refunded to your Paradise balance.
• If you sell action on Pokerstake on re-entries to the Super Main Event, GGPoker will buy 50% of your unsold action. This is also pretty insane.
• There is also a $30k package, which you can qualify for via satellites, which covers your $25k main buy-in, accommodation ($4k under market rate), buffet, player’s lounge access, welcome party, and more. Some of these packages are being given away by partners as well, which included PokerOrg. 
• You could also get high roller packages, which provide a massive amount of value on costs, as well as some nice amenities. 

Add these together, and I doubt we've ever seen this many incentives to attend a tournament series.

There are lots of financial incentives to head to The Bahamas in December.

WPT incentives

But WPT is also fighting for your attendance.

WPT ran a $5M freeroll in 2024, which was also an insane promotion. This was replaced with a Mystery Quest event in 2025. Both events put money directly up for grabs for the community and targeted more of the lower/mid-stakes players, which is arguably better for the industry as a whole.

The Mystery Quest adds $1.5M in Mystery Bounty envelopes, with prizes such as a luxury SUV, a trip to Costa Rica, and potentially a mini horse depending on player voting. (It’s hard to tell when WPT Gold are serious about things these days, but I would actually expect a mini horse at the Wynn should that option win out.)

There is also a $500k second chance raffle for anyone who enters the Mystery Quest, which includes a $100k WPT Ambassadorship, which provides a $50k salary and a $50k poker bankroll, and seems like a huge opportunity that is hard to value, as this is not something you can easily get otherwise. There are also seats for the $10k Main and $1k Prime events.

While overall the promotions from WSOP seem higher dollar-wise (and perhaps more incentives are needed to get people to travel further internationally to the Bahamas vs. going to Vegas), both operators are doing a ton to give value back to the community – a direct result of this fierce competition in December. 

But is this hurting attendance, and can it potentially cause long-term harm? 

WPT's pockets might not be as deep, but it's got its own unique way of attracting players to Las Vegas this December.

It’s hard to compare apples to apples YoY for the WPT Main due to the removal of guarantees, but 2024 was below 2022, and 2023 was an anomaly due to the $40M guarantee.

If 2025 is flat or below 2024, this will be a bad sign, although macroeconomic factors abound. The $1k Prime championship was also down YoY.

The $1,600 Mystery Bounty had a huge drop in entries in 2024, mostly due to the guarantee dropping to $500k from $2M. This is not a good sign when a major operator feels they cannot meet guarantees for their flagship series. This is certainly a consequence of the parallel WSOP Paradise on the schedule.

It's very difficult to do YoY analysis for WSOP Paradise. Event types, entry fees, and guarantees all changed. Even its Main Event went from a $5k buy-in in 2023 to $25k in 2024 – and 2025 will increase that guarantee by $10M. But a major signal is that WSOP seems to be increasing their guarantees, while WPT is decreasing or removing them.

We definitely need WPT to continue to compete with WSOP to ensure competitive balance, so this is not a great sign. Increasing guarantees also absolutely doesn’t mean WSOP is doing better YoY – it can be throwing money to win the December schedule from its competitor and is just willing to eat overlays and massive incentive costs to do it.

WPT vs. WSOP – a long view

We do need to take a long view of these things – but you should enjoy these insane incentives from two major operators while they last. The amount of value being gift-wrapped to the community in December seems unprecedented. 

But keep an eye on attendance and guarantees, as that could signal this fracturing of the player pool may cause some long-term harm.

Derek Kwan is a poker player, analyst, and content creator studying industry trends, growth strategy, and player behavior, and he is the host of 10 Minute Poker Tips. Follow Derek on X.