The following is an extract from A-Game Poker by Elliot Roe and Ryan Carter.
Roe is a leading mindset and performance coach who has worked closely with many elite poker players, including Phil Galfond, Fedor Holz, Brain Rast, Jason Koon and Kristen Foxen.
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The Six Levers of Poker Profits
Imagine you're in a large control room. This control room is your mind, and it regulates your thoughts, emotions, and actions.
As you're looking around you notice a door, and above it, a sign that reads "Poker Profits." You open the door to find a dimly lit room and a large lever labeled "Poker Skill." Next to the lever is a digital display that shows "Expected Profits Next 12 Months."
You grab hold of the lever and start to raise it. At first it lifts relatively easily, and you see your "Expected Profits" number rising at a similar pace. The more you lift it, though, the harder it gets. You also notice that the "Expected Profits" number is only going up a fraction of the amount it was before. You keep trying with all your strength to get that number to go higher, but your "Expected Profit" number won't budge another inch. You push and push and push with all your might, but no matter how hard you try, that "Expected Profits" number just won't move.
Eventually you give up and slump back against the wall. As you sit there, trying to catch your breath, you notice a light switch. You stand up and flick it on to reveal that the room is much larger than you originally realized. Along the wall next to "Poker Skill" are five additional levers, six in total. You get up and start adjusting them, and notice that as you manipulate these new levers, your "Expected Profit" number changes. You notice that adjusting some of the levers affects the others, some positively and some negatively. You're not quite sure of the perfect combination just yet, but you feel a sense of relief knowing that there is more than just the Poker Skill lever that affects your profits, and that all of these factors are under your control.
All right, now take a moment...
Have you ever felt what I just described when trying to raise the level of your game? That no matter how much time and effort you're putting into it, the needle isn't moving? Sadly, this is an all-too-common experience. The good news is that you've been focusing your attention too narrowly and by expanding your frame of reference to include the other available levers, you can and will increase your profitability.
The six levers I've determined have a direct effect on your results are:
- Skill - Your absolute knowledge of the game
- Edge - The gap in skill between you and your opponents
- Efficiency - The percentage of time you apply the full extent of your skill to a hand
- Volume - How often you apply your poker skills for real money
- Stakes - The size of the games you play
- Rake - The fee you are charged by the house to play.
These are the six factors that make up the system that produces your poker profits. They are not independent elements, they are holistic, each one deeply connected and intertwined with the others. This is a crucial thing to understand. When you are dealing with an integrated system, focusing on one area and neglecting others is a recipe for disaster. Raise one lever slightly and your profits go up. Raise the same lever too much and it might cause another to drop, resulting in your overall profits going down. Since these levers are symbiotic, it's impossible to declare one more important than another (or at least it's a valueless exercise to undertake).
The most skilled player in the world who plays against stiff competition (edge), tilts often (efficiency), and rarely plays (volume) will make less money than a mediocre player who plays often (volume) against very weak competition (edge) at very high stakes (stakes).
A good example of this would be Dan Bilzerian. Dan doesn't have the reputation of being an elite player, but he's rumored to have made over $50,000,000 in profits by playing against ultra-rich amateurs in private cash games. So, while you personally may have more skill than Dan, skill isn't an asset you can take to the bank and exchange for cash. The poker player who is most successful is the one who can optimize as many levers as possible in order to maximize their profits.
In A-Game Poker we take a deeper look at each of the six levers I've mentioned and explore how they interact with the other five. When I say a particular lever positively correlates with another specific lever, I mean that raising that lever will likely raise the other. When I say a particular lever negatively correlates with another lever, I mean that raising that lever will likely lower the other. (Note: This is neither a good thing or a bad thing, it is simply a consequence.)
Your "Expected Profit" number is the only thing that matters, so sometimes raising one lever and lowering another will be optimal in that regard. For example, playing in a tougher game but at higher stakes (Raising Stakes and Lowering Edge) will often be more profitable than playing against weaker opponents at lower stakes. When I say a lever is neutral with another it just means that raising or lowering it usually has no effect on the other. Remember, these correlations are general statements and examples. You'll have scenarios and combinations where raising a lever for one person might be a positive for that person but a negative for another.
This isn't about coming up with an exact formula, it's about understanding where your profits come from and how these factors interact with each other. Once you have this understanding, you'll be able to apply it to your game and unique situation.
A-Game Poker by Elliot Roe & Ryan Carter is published by Mindset Coach, and is available to buy now at Amazon and at the A-Game Poker site.
