With the dark cloud of a damaging new tax law hanging over the poker community as 2026 begins, players and operators alike now exist in an era of uncertainty. Will the change make tournament play nonviable? Will field sizes suffer as a result?
On January 21, Tim Duckworth, Director of Live Events & Content for PokerGO and the PokerGO Tour (PGT), offered his take on how the new law might affect player turnout in the upcoming PGT Kickoff series. "I would be very satisfied if we hit 75% of the 2025 attendance numbers in these events (78-entrant average in the $5Ks)," he wrote. "I think anything around 60% (62-entrants) will be a more concerning indicator."
Duckworth's assessment, while logical and data-supported, came up short as the opening event of the PGT Kickoff series drew the second-largest $5K field in the tour's history.
PokerOrg spoke with Duckworth to gain a better understanding of his initial skepticism about player turnouts and hear his perspective on why the first PGT Kickoff event bucked the predicted downtrend.
'Butts in seats'
In making his assessment, Duckworth weighed the new tax law as a heavy disincentive to tournament players. That, coupled with a less than stellar turnout at the Lucky Hearts Poker Open, led him to err on the cautious side when estimating player turnout for not only the PGT Kickoff series, but the broader poker schedule in 2026.
"We had the PGT Last Chance series in early January – which had really good numbers – but I couldn't use those data points as an indication of what to expect because of all the added benefits," Duckworth explained. "Basically, in speaking to players, a lot of them were thinking that the $5Ks would be normal. When it came to $10Ks though, they might just fire one bullet. And you kind of have to expect the fringe recreational players to skip."
In attempting to determine why the turnout in Event #1 of the PGT Kickoff series, the tour's incentives for players cannot be ignored – the rake reduction for on-time registration in particular.
"I think the rake reduction is something that more operators need to implement. Getting butts in seats is the most important thing and then once people are playing it kind of trickles on," Duckworth told us. "Operators do look at that rake reduction as a loss of income, but we are confident that it helps get tournaments started and re-entries going. I think any operator that's going to be running high rollers should do that."
'Fresh blood' always needed
For its Kickoff series, the PGT awards double leaderboard points for players who make the money. This added incentive, when paired with the rake reduction and complimentary food, likely played a role in the surprising turnout.
"The double points for Kickoff is a great way for the regs to position themselves high up on the leaderboard where it might only take a few more cashes to lock up a spot in the end of year freeroll," Duckworth continued. "And then for the new blood – I think we had 12 players in Event #1 that have never been in here before – I think a combination of all these things attracts them to playing."
An influx of new players is never a bad thing to see from an operator's point-of-view. While the PGT is no stranger to up-and-comers taking a shot in its events, the turnout of new players in Event #1 surprised Duckworth. When asked whether a group of newcomers this size often steps into the PokerGO Studio for a series, he didn't mince words.
"No, not really, to be honest," he began. "You need the player pool to grow and you have to try to bring people up. You need some people to take shots, but you also need some people to play down in stakes a little bit where there's enough value for them to roll out of bed and play a $5K. You need fresh blood in there. That's always the goal, is to see new players come through and as many unique entrants as possible. It's a great thing to see."
Sustaining the numbers
With the shocking turnout in Event #1 comes a key question: will the rest of the series follow suit? Historically speaking, it should.
"Looking at this series last year, basically every event went up in entrants," Duckworth told us. "We started with 84, then 96, then 112, 126 for the $5Ks. So, the question is can we expect that with this year's series? I would actually hope that we kind of keep along at plateau for these. If we can keep around that 135 number for the next three $5Ks that would be perfect.
"Obviously, I'm not going to say no to an increase in numbers, but I would hate to see the reverse where we dramatically drop off numbers."
Thankfully, we've seen the numbers hold thus far. In Event #2 of the PGT Kickoff series, 151 entrants joined the field – an increase on Event #1 that reset the record for second-largest $5K field in the tour's history. Event #3 continued the upward trend with 159 entrants.
Duckworth's outlook on the tournament poker ecosystem mirrors his expectations for the PGT.
"I think people are going to look at our numbers now and think nothing is wrong. But I'm guessing these players will be very particular when it gets to that $10,000 price point, especially when you start venturing outside of the Studio where maybe there's no rake discount or food comps for playing," he said. "I think those little things matter to these guys. It seems silly to the everyman, but a $50 food comp and a rake discount for starting on time is, I think, a big thing.
"There's two $10Ks coming up as part of the Wynn Millions schedule. Obviously, Wynn is a powerhouse on its own and will probably still do well, but I think that's where you'll see some players skip it or only fire one entry instead of multiple. I think $25Ks will struggle, as we saw at Seminole. Over the last few years, we've kind of identified $3K-$5Ks are the place to be in America."
Images courtesy of Antonio Abrego/PokerGO Tour
