Name: Tournament guarantees, guaranteed prizepools, ‘GTD!!!!!’
Age: Almost as old as tournaments themselves.
Appearance: A big number plastered all over promotional materials for a poker tournament.
I like the sound of a ‘guarantee’ — it feels reassuring. So it should. A poker tournament guarantee is a statement from its organizers that’s designed to give some peace of mind and build anticipation. If they say they’re guaranteed to award a certain amount in prize money, that’s what they’ll do. Mostly.
Mostly? So a guarantee isn’t always… guaranteed? Let’s not name names, but it’s certainly not unheard of for tournaments to ‘fall off the schedule’ at late notice if the numbers aren’t quite adding up, or even disregard the guaranteed amount entirely. Others might include tournament fees, accommodation packages or staff payments in the overall guarantee, which obviously aren’t paid out as prizes. But mostly you should find that tournament guarantees are largely honored, both live and online. For most players, knowing there are big prizes on offer is a great incentive to play.
That all sounds great, but how is it relevant for players like me? You mean, 'players who literally never win tournaments'?
Well, yes (though you didn’t have to say it quite like that). Even if you’re not expecting to win a tournament, the posted guarantee is a useful indicator of how large the field will be. A tournament’s organizers will have an idea of how many players they can attract, and set the guarantee accordingly. For example, if they think they can get at least 100 players for a $1,000 tournament, they might set the guarantee around $100,000.
And what happens if they get even more players? Then they pay out even more.
And if they don’t get enough? Ah, well, then you have the much-desired ‘overlay’.
Is that something to do with carpets? You’re thinking of underlay; an overlay is more exciting than carpets — for players, anyway; tournament organizers are less keen on them. An overlay refers to the situation where a tournament takes in less money than it has guaranteed to pay out. Organizers have to honor their commitment, so make up the shortfall themselves. That means more money, fewer players, and a whole lot of extra value for those who play.
Does this actually happen? I thought 'the house always wins'? Operators obviously try to ensure it doesn’t, but if they didn’t occasionally miss their guarantees it probably means they’re not being ambitious enough. Recent high profile examples include last year’s WSOP Paradise $25K Super Main Event, which had a record-busting $50M guarantee. It ended up with an overlay of $550K.
Ouch, that’s a chunk of money. I guess they’re toning it down this year, then? On the contrary: this year’s version of the WSOP Paradise Super Main will have an even bigger $60M guarantee — the biggest live guarantee ever, in fact. The WSOP definitely wants to show its rivals, such as the WPT, that it has the biggest one of all.
This ‘my one’s bigger than yours’ stuff all sounds like a bit of a Freudian metaphor. There’s nothing metaphorical about it — it’s literally a contest to show the world who’s got the biggest guarantee, and therefore the biggest fields, the biggest prizes, the biggest names, etc. The WPT plays the game too: in 2023 it announced a record-setting $40M guarantee for its WPT World Championship, throwing down the gauntlet.
How did that work out? They missed it by several million dollars. The next year, there was no guarantee. We’re still waiting to see what they have planned for December’s big fling.
So, should I care about tournament guarantees? Of course you should! The size of the prizepool dictates the money you could win. And at the very least, they tell you what size of a tournament to expect, while the possibility of an overlay is one that any sensible player should be aware of. Even those like you who, let’s say, ‘perpetually run below EV’.
That’s better. You’re welcome.
Do say: ‘Come play this tournament! It’s 50 players short of its guarantee!’ (to one friend)
Don’t say: ‘Come play this tournament! It’s 50 players short of its guarantee!’ (to 50 friends)
