Getting ready for the World Series of Poker?
Then you’d better figure out why your bluffs aren’t working.
I work with about five separate clients a day most days. I coach more volume than just about any poker coach I know, and I keep hearing the same thing from players all over the United States. It doesn’t matter what stake they play or what state they live in: bluffs are not working like they used to.
My personal theory is simple. People feel like they’re getting screwed everywhere they go. At the gas station, they feel like they’re getting screwed. At the grocery store, they feel like they’re getting screwed. So when they sit down at the poker table, they’re done getting screwed. They see bluffs everywhere now, and they do not want to fold.
Testing my theory
I got a chance to test this theory the other night in a cash game. I wasn’t planning to play much — I mainly wanted to hang out with a friend — and the game we could find was $1/$3 no-limit Hold’em.
A player with about $220 opened to $20. I looked down at pocket aces and thought, You know what? I’m not going to slow-play here, because nobody folds anymore, anyway. So I made it $120, which effectively gave his $220 stack no fold equity. He shoved all in with jack-ten suited. We ended up chopping the pot.
Afterward, someone asked him why he didn’t fold. His answer was: “I didn’t want to get bullied.”
That pretty much sums up how a lot of people in the United States are feeling right now. They feel like they’re getting bullied, and they do not want to fold anymore.
That means certain bluffs that were great ideas even a couple of years ago are not nearly as good today.
Take a common example. Suppose the board comes with a flush draw and you bet, and your opponent just calls. A lot of the time, that call indicates they do not have two pair or a set, because many players would raise those hands to protect against the draw. That usually leaves them with one mediocre pair.
At higher buy-ins, it used to be profitable to keep piling pressure on those mediocre pairs. Even if people suspected you might have missed draws, they would still eventually fold. Those days are fading. If players see one missed draw on the board, many of them simply are not folding.
So what bluffs actually do work now?
First, I would look more closely at turn overbets. Those really make people uncomfortable. Now they have to worry about facing another bet on the river. They have to worry about another scary card coming. They do not get to see your hand yet. That uncertainty creates real anxiety.
But once they get to the river and call, everything is over. They know there are no more decisions left. They get to satisfy their curiosity and see what you had. That curiosity is powerful, and it makes river bluffs much less effective than they used to be.
The other bluff you can use more often is a blocker bluff. If the flush comes in and you block the nut flush, that’s a much better time to bluff. Your opponent already has the nuts less often than people think, and when you hold a key blocker, they have it even less often.
And honestly, maybe the way to win this summer is not to bluff very much at all. Maybe the adjustment is simply to value bet more.
Have you tried increasing your value bets lately? It’s been working extremely well for me.
Alex Fitzgerald is a best-selling author published by D&B Poker. Check out Alex’s most recent offering, ‘How to Beat Players Who Never Fold.’
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