Alan Longo is a High Performance Psychologist with five years of experience coaching high-stakes poker players. Passionate about sports, he educates and empowers players with the tools to build their mental foundations, professional routines, and competitive planning for consistent, high-level performance. Find out more at his website.
Confidence is one of the most discussed topics in poker. As we discussed in our article on the 'Mental Foundations' of poker, it is one of the three core pillars of a strong mental game, alongside mindset and emotional regulation.
Players talk about 'running high on confidence' during an upswing or feeling it disappear entirely when variance turns against them. For many, it's a vague, almost mystical quality — something you either have or you don't. This perspective, however, makes it impossible to manage or develop.
From a performance psychology standpoint, it's far more productive to focus on a more precise, measurable, and evidence-based concept: Self-efficacy.
Coined by psychologist Albert Bandura, self-efficacy is defined as your 'beliefs in one’s capabilities to organize and execute the courses of action required to produce given attainments.'
In simpler terms, it’s not a general feeling of 'being confident.' It is your specific belief in your ability to execute a specific task in a specific situation. This distinction is the key to systematically building a stronger mental game.
Self-efficacy vs. skill: A critical distinction
The most common mistake players make is confusing self-efficacy with technical skill. Self-efficacy is not just about having the skills; it's about your belief in what you can accomplish with them.
You can spend hundreds of hours studying GTO pre-flop charts (the skill), but do you have the self-efficacy to execute a 3-bet bluff against an aggressive regular on a final table bubble (the belief)?
That gap between knowing what to do and believing you can do it under pressure is where performance often breaks down. Two players can have the exact same technical knowledge, but the one with higher, well-calibrated self-efficacy is far more likely to apply that knowledge consistently.
How self-efficacy drives your actions
Why is this belief so important? Because your level of self-efficacy directly influences your thoughts, feelings, and, most importantly, your behaviors at the table.
Athletes with high self-efficacy demonstrate several key patterns:
They choose demanding tasks. In poker, this means they don't just avoid tough spots. They are more willing to engage in challenging (but profitable) situations, like bluff-catching or running a multi-street bluff.
They invest more effort. They put in the work, both on and off the felt, because they believe that work will lead to improved performance.
They persist in the face of failure. This is perhaps the most critical factor for a poker player. High self-efficacy is what allows a player to maintain their A-game and trust their process during a long and painful downswing, rather than spiraling into doubt and radically changing their strategy.
The four primary sources of self-efficacy
Self-efficacy is not a personality trait you're born with. It is a dynamic belief system that is built and strengthened through the cognitive processing of information from several key sources. If you want to build it, you must focus on the sources.
Performance accomplishments
This is the most powerful and reliable source of self-efficacy. It is the tangible, personal proof from your own past successes. When you successfully execute a difficult play, you build a 'mental receipt' that proves you can do it.
This is why mastery is so important. A process of starting with simple tasks and practicing them until they are perfected before moving to more complex skills is a proven way to build a robust foundation of efficacy.
Vicarious experiences (modeling)
You can also build efficacy by observing others. When you watch a peer or a study partner — someone you perceive as being similar to you — successfully navigate a tough spot or apply a new strategy, it can raise your own belief that you can do it, too. This is a primary benefit of effective study groups.
Verbal persuasion
This involves the feedback and encouragement you receive from credible sources. When a coach you respect provides specific, positive feedback on your play, it can boost your belief in your capabilities. However, this source is most effective when it's believable and tied to actual performance. Vague praise like "you're a great player" is far less effective than "Your logic for check-raising the turn in that spot was sound."
Physiological & emotional states
This source is not about eliminating pressure but about how you interpret it. As we explored in our guide to 'Basic Emotional Regulation Concepts', your body's response to a high-pressure moment — a racing heart, faster breathing — is just physiological arousal.
You can interpret these signals as "I'm panicking" (which lowers efficacy) or as "I'm ready" or "My body is preparing for a high-performance moment". Learning to reframe these sensations is a key emotional regulation skill that directly protects your self-efficacy when it matters most.
The goal: Building well-calibrated efficacy
It's important to note that the goal is not blind, 'unshakeable' belief. That's a myth. The objective is to build well-calibrated efficacy — where your belief in your abilities is accurately and firmly aligned with your actual, proven capabilities.
A miscalibration, where belief far outstrips your actual skill, leads to poor preparation, flawed decision-making, and neglect of study.
Robust efficacy isn't about arrogance; it's about an earned and honest assessment. It's the quiet, stable belief that comes from knowing you have put in the work, you have mastered the component skills, and you are capable of executing your strategy, regardless of the next card to fall.
By shifting your focus from the vague idea of 'confidence' to the actionable process of building self-efficacy, you move away from hoping for a feeling and start building a durable, reliable foundation for your long-term performance.
