Today we examine the 2nd key hand from Joao Vieira's victorious run, this time against Fedor Holz holding the best hand in poker, pocket aces, and ready for battle! This hand, along with sims, can be found at Octopi Poker Vault (subscription is required).
See part 1 of this series here.
Final table payouts & ICM implications
We begin this hand 8-handed with Joao Vieira holding a commanding chip lead at nearly 60bb, with one short stack (Alex Foxen under 10bb) and the group of six middle stacks between 15bb and 30bb. Fedor Hotz is sitting in 3rd place with 24.2bb.
With a steep payout structure with $585K for 8th and $4.6M for 1st, ICM pressure is very high on Fedor; however, doubling to become the chip leader while taking the chip leader down to average stack has dramatic implications for both players.
Preflop action
We start the hand with blinds of 50K/125K and a 125K ante. Fedor (LJ) has 24.4bb and min-raises to 2bb with 
, while Joao (BN), the clear table chip leader with 59.8bb, calls with 
. Both the SB and BB fold.
Preflop range analysis
Fedor, in the LJ, opens tighter than with chipEV, around 18%, given that the chip leader on the button can flat or 3-bet relatively wide. His range consists of:
- Pairs 88+ pure/77 sometimes
- Broadway down to Jx
- All Suited Ax
- A9o + some A8o/A5o
- K9s + K8s/K6s sometimes
Holding an ace or a king reduces the likelihood of opponents holding hands that continue via calls or 3-bets.
Joao on the BN as the chip leader calls 19% and raises 10%. His calling range includes:
- Every pair 22 - TT
- Every suited connector 54s+, along with J9/T8/97/64/53
- All suited Ax/most of Kx/best of Qx
- Best off suit broadways
His raising range includes JJ+/AK for value and mixes raises and folds with A3o-A9o/various Kx/Qx/QJo/KTo as bluffs.
98s is a mandatory call, which he makes. Everyone else folds, and we are off to the flop.
The flop
Fedor, LJ: check
Joao, BN: bet 1.8BB, 28% of pot
Fedor: call
The flop is staged by poker gods for maximum drama. Vieira flops a straight while Fedor holds the ultimate overpair. The flop 
is highly dynamic and draw-heavy, connecting much better with Vieira’s range than Fedor’s.
Using Octopi’s Side-by-Side Range Explorer, we can see the flop strategies for both players:
Indeed, we can see that IP has significantly more pairs and various draws while OOP’s range consists of overpairs, top pairs, overcards, flush draws and some weak straight draws with Jx. In fact, IP has a significant range advantage, $73K vs $47K!
As a result, OOP plays range check, and IP plays nearly range bet with small sizing. Which is exactly what both players do. Let’s see what OOP does vs. a small bet.
We can see that 40% is folding right away, including hands with a lot of equity, like QJ/KJ with a backdoor and even the nut flushes! Even AJhh is folding 60% of the time! AA continues predominantly by calling, along with KK. JJ/QQ/AT mostly jam for protection, along with some nut flushes and A8-A9 with a flush backdoor as bluffs.
Up to this point, both players have navigated the hand flawlessly — now let’s see what the next card brings.
The turn
Fedor, LJ: check
Joao, BN: bet 3.6BB, 36% of pot
Fedor: call
The 
on the turn is unpleasant for both players' holdings, completing the front-door flush draw. Range wise, this card strengthens IP range even more, which has significantly more nutted hands like full houses, flushes, straights and trips. Not surprisingly, turn is again a range check for Fedor.
However, by check-calling the flop, Fedor has already shown some strength and a willingness to continue. OOP also has a fair amount of flushes — and their flushes are generally better than IP’s — along with sets and overpairs that now counterfeited the equity of lower pairs prevalent in IP range. Some of his high cards with a diamond now picked up a strong flush draw as well.
As a result, IP needs to slow down, check back a lot, and continue with selective holdings, playing a more polar strategy and using mostly big bets or checks.
As we can see, full houses want to pile the money pure, along with our worst holdings like A9o/K5s/54s, etc. The remaining strong holdings — flushes, straights, trips — mix big bets or checks, protecting the checking range and controlling the pot. Joao’s specific hand, , mixes all options, including small bets that push the equity up a bit without inflating the pot too much. He chooses to take that route and make a small bet for 36% of the pot.
In response, OOP folds 28% of the range that did not improve and calls the most of the continues. Only 5% raises, predominantly the nut flushes. AA is a pure call.
Once again, both players execute their strategies perfectly.
The river
Fedor, LJ: check
Joao, BN: check
The river is the 
, which is less consequential than a fourth diamond, or a 9/8/7/6 that could complete more straights or full houses. However, it’s not a brick either, benefitting mostly Fedor’s range that could have made a full house with JJ or JT, if only for 4% of his range. Once again, OOP has a range check.
At first glance, Joao’s check on the river is a bit surprising — he still has a strong hand with a straight and an SPR (stack-to-pot ratio) of around 1, a spot where betting could’ve put Fedor in serious trouble, potentially even knocking him out.
Was Joao simply too low in his range to justify a value bet, or did he miss a key opportunity to widen his chip lead even further?
Joao’s decision to check the river
Joao’s optimal river strategy should be highly polarized — shoving with all of his strongest hands like flushes, full houses, quads, and straight flushes, as well as his bluffs with no showdown value. The middle of his range, on the other hand, should mostly check or opt for a smaller bet, around 50% of the pot. All straights should bet the river, typically leaning toward this mid-size bet.
Joao’s specific hand, , is a pure 50% pot bet in this spot. Meanwhile, Fedor’s pocket aces are a mandatory call against that sizing, and it's highly likely he would have made the call in-game — highlighting a missed opportunity for Joao to extract some valuable chips.
What if Joao had bet the turn for a larger sizing?
If Joao had bet 75% pot on the turn and Fedor called, they would reach the river with an SPR of just 0.52 — leaving only two viable options: check or jam. Additionally, both players’ ranges would be more narrow due to the larger turn sizing, and the threshold for value-jamming on the river would be higher. This is especially important since Fedor’s range remains largely uncapped, given his passive line throughout the hand.
Interestingly, the solver now would have agreed with Joao’s decision to check back the river — despite the much lower SPR. Fedor’s range is significantly stronger now, having withstood a bigger turn bet all the while carrying a significant risk premium for busting. Against that range, all straights are now checking behind pure. Facing the river jam, AA is folding outright.
So, how big was Joao’s mistake of checking the river?
Even though the solver would have preferred to bet for value, the actual EV difference is pretty small between checking and betting: about $10K. Jamming would have actually been the second best choice to a small bet, less than $1K behind.
Such nuanced inaccuracy can easily be forgiven, especially given the stakes and the pressure of the moment. This was yet another masterfully played hand between two exceptional players.
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