'Improve Your Poker Now!' by Topher Goggin and Alexander Fitzgerald is available as an ebook or paperback from D&B Poker.
The WSOP is in full swing, with recreational players joining the pros in Vegas for a shot at glory. If you’re one of those recs, or any other serious amateur looking to level up your game, a simple tip from noted coach and author Alex Fitzgerald can revolutionize your mental approach.
Alex is my co-writer on (and the brains behind) Improve Your Poker NOW — A Guide for Serious Amateurs. What sets him apart as a coach is his ability to pick out a simple idea, often a mental cue, that will instantly help legions of everyday players improve.
Recently, he has begun focusing on one of these keys to help with analyzing opponents’ ranges. It all hinges around the question, 'What don’t they have?'
Ranging 101
Poker’s analytical revolution is rooted in thinking about 'ranges' — considering the entire collection of hands an opponent might be holding, then making decisions based upon that grouping as a whole. For pros, this skill is second nature. The process is so ingrained that they will know their opponent’s range without even having to consciously think about it.
But pros didn’t acquire that skill overnight. Hold’em features 169 different starting hands, which multiply into 1,326 unique card combinations. Mentally tracking which of those hands remain 'in play' can be daunting for amateurs. Every decision point in a hand requires more analysis.
Ranging is just one of the many demands put on a player’s mental energy at the table. And after settling on a range for an adversary, there’s still the matter of figuring out how to attack it. Many recs get overwhelmed and abandon disciplined analysis for haphazard guesses, missing the chance to take advantage of available information.
As they say in the infomercials, there has to be a better way.
A practical building block
In a previous article, I discussed how players trying to improve their focus can quickly get overloaded by a sea of different things to watch. I detailed the strategy Alex and I advocate in our book — selecting one particular aspect of the game to observe and focusing on that alone at first. Once you have mastered tracking one item, then you can add complexity to your system.
We have a similar recommendation for people looking to get better with ranges. When you’re training a new mental routine, don’t try to become Phil Ivey on day one. Begin with a bite-sized piece. Specifically, practice asking yourself 'What don’t they have?'
What don’t they have?
Even at advanced levels, ranging is just an exercise in the process of elimination. You’ll start with the entire universe of hands, then use your opponent’s actions to rule out possibilities. The further a hand progresses, the more the range 'narrows,' as fewer and fewer choices remain.
As noted, keeping track of everything is challenging. That’s why you need to walk before you run. Every time your opponent acts, identify something they don't have. Identify one important group of hands that do not fit that action. Then use those eliminated hands to guide your decisions as play proceeds.
By focusing on one hand group at a time, you’ll keep things mentally manageable. Like any other learned skill, it will quickly get easier. Then you can expand to tackling multiple aspects of the range at once.
An example
Let’s work through a sample hand. Fairly early in a tournament, you raise to 2.5bb from the hijack. For this example, your hand doesn’t matter. We’re only worried about what you can learn about your opponent.
The action folds to the small blind, a recreational player in his 30s who says he’s in Vegas for a few days. He calls, and the big blind folds. The flop comes —
WHOA! Stop! You’re about to miss your chance. What have you already learned? What doesn’t he have?
He probably doesn’t have 52o, but that’s of minimal importance. Of more interest is that when the small blind just flats, it’s highly unlikely that he has a big pair. Impossible? No. But hands like AA, KK, QQ, and JJ will almost always 3-bet here. The last thing those hands want to do is invite the big blind to come along cheaply, leaving the small blind out of position against multiple foes. 3-betting gets more money into the pot immediately, seizes the betting lead, and usually keeps the action heads-up. That’s much more likely from someone with a monster.
With that in mind, you should proceed under the assumption that AA-JJ are off the table. In truth, you could probably also exclude other likely 3-bets like ace-king, plus all of the junk hands that would fold. But the idea for now is to keep things simple so you don’t get overwhelmed. Mentally cross off the big pairs and keep moving.
The action continues
The dealer spreads a flop of 
, the quintessential coordinated board. The small blind checks, which doesn’t mean much, and you c-bet for around half the pot. The small blind calls. Quick. What doesn’t he have?
Draw-heavy boards like this are among Alex’s favorites to teach. Once the villain calls, you can substantially discount the chance that he has flopped a set or two-pair. While combinations like T9s, T7s, 97s, and 77 all fit the preflop action, they become much less likely after the small blind calls your c-bet. A player with two-pair or better would usually feel compelled to raise on this board, hoping to protect against draws while extracting value before a scary turn card could kill their action.
While an elite player would discern even more about the small blind’s range, this is the detail that you can’t afford to miss. Will excluding sets and two pair always be right? Of course not. But it will be correct often enough that you should incorporate it into your thought processes for the rest of the hand.
These two details alone tell you a lot. After all, imagine the uproar that would occur if the dealer handed you a note saying 'Psst, your opponent does not have an overpair, two-pair, or a set.' That’s critical data.
In modern poker lingo, we would say that the small blind’s range is 'capped' at one-pair hands and draws. Now you must put that info to use.
Depending on the runout, if you make a hand that beats top pair, you can value-bet whatever sizing you believe can get called. If you can’t beat a pair, you may have a bluffing opportunity. Ask yourself if the small blind is the type of player that would call a big bet with one-pair on a scary runout? If not, you can seriously consider firing. Decisions like these will always be judgment calls, and will depend on tournament and stack dynamics. But having an idea about what your opponent is holding will help you notice the chances when they arise.
Prepare for potholes
No ranging system is foolproof. Sometimes your foes are going to deviate from the script and make an unexpected move that they probably shouldn’t. They may show up with a hand you concluded they 'couldn’t' have, leading you into straight into trouble.
Don’t lose your cool when this happens. Good poker requires focusing on the long game. If you consistently think about ranges, your winning plays will far outnumber the few times when you’ll put your foot in the bucket.
Wandering too far off the beaten path costs long-run equity. Players who make a habit out of unpredictable moves will find themselves in the showers more often than the payout line. When you run into a surprise, convert your reflexive frustration into a realization that you’re on the path to eventual success.
Keep moving forward
Learning to thinking in ranges is a rite of passage for poker players climbing the ranks, the equivalent of a kid taking the training wheels off their bicycle. It’s a challenging process, and folks get lost by trying to do too much, too soon. Many then make it worse by concluding that ranging is too hard and giving up.
Don’t let that be you. Even small deductions about your adversaries’ cards will give you an edge. Take it one step at a time. Whenever they act, use their choices to rule out a few more hands. You’ll be amazed the difference it will make in your results.
