The next time you start in on a bad beat story, remember there’s always someone who’s had it worse than you. Unless your name is Isaac Baron.
The OG online crusher rolled back the years this week and found himself in an incredible position to take a huge chip lead with four left in the 2024 WSOP Online Main Event – a tournament that boasted the biggest first prize in online poker history. When the hand went down, the remaining four players were guaranteed $1.8M, with an incredible $4M up top.
Baron found himself looking down at kings in the small blind after a shove from Evgenii Akimov on the button. He would be at risk if he made the call, but he would have a huge 164,370,172 stack and a dominant chip lead if he called and won.
Baron called and Akimov turned over 
.
If Baron was happy to see this, he would have been elated to see the 
flop, which gave him a near 97% lock on the hand.
Worst bad beat ever?
There’s always a sweat, though, and the 
brought it in for Baron. Baron had clubs covered, so Akimov’s outs were any non-club 
or 
.
The 
peeled off on the river and Baron was out in fourth for $1,843,337.
If his kings had held, Baron's stack, worth $2,842,477.24 at the start of the hand in terms of ICM value, would have been worth $3,313,356.69.
Now that’s a bad beat.
'ICM value' refers to the Independent Chip Model, which can be a confusing concept, especially for less experienced tournament players. Don't worry, though - we reached out to two GTO wizards, Dara O’Kearney and Michael Acevedo, to explain and break down the hand in detail.
Michael Acevedo’s video breakdown
Michael Acevedo is the author of the bestseller Modern Poker Theory and the forthcoming Modern Poker Theory – The Tournament Workbook by D&B Publishing. He put together an exclusive video for PokerOrg, talking through:
- How crazy was the hand in terms of money and strategy?
- What were the ICM values before the hand happened?
- The table dynamic changes drastically if Baron' kings hold, giving him a huge stack
- A $1.5M ICM difference after the loss of the hand
- What is the proper button strategy in this spot? Can they shove any two?
- What are the hand ranges that the blinds should be calling a shove with?
- Would a min-raise have been more appropriate from the button?
Dara O’Kearney: A min-raise is better
“It’s not common for somebody to open shove for 46 big blinds effective in a tournament of this magnitude.
However, if we put this hand into the Hold’em Resources Calculator and give the player the option to only shove, they can actually profitably do so with almost the entire range.
This is because Akimov can exert so much ICM pressure on the other two players due to the fact that the shortest-stacked player, Rui Ferreira, has just folded. It’s correct to play very tight here because Baron and Dietrich can wait out Ferreria for a $500k pay jump.
As you can see, 64o is actually a breakeven shove, believe it or not.
This is the calling range in the GTO world for both Baron and Dietrich, if folded to them:
Notice that AK is a fold. An important lesson here is that against a wide range, pocket pairs perform better than unpaired hands, even if it is AK.
Calling with KK is worth $202,273 in equity for Baron, so it is an easy call.
When we give Akimov the option to min-raise or shove in Hold’em Resources calculator, he can actually play 100% of his hands.
Min raise 82% of the time:
Shove 18% of the time:
So, while the shove is profitable, it’s still better to min-raise. That means you can play 100% of your hands and don’t have to rely on the Poker Gods when you get called by kings."
How would you play the hand?
Put yourself at the final table in Isaac Baron’s seat. What would you do in that situation from the small blind? Is it an absolute no-brainer to call with kings? Would you fold due to the short stack at the table and a few million on the line? Would you play to win?
Let us know your thoughts in the comments below.
Dara O’Kearney is a prolific author, poker pro, renowned coach, UniBet Ambassador, and co-host of the award-winning podcast The Chip Race. Check out Dara’s entire library of Poker Solved Books at www.daraokearney.com. Follow Dara on X and Instagram.
Michael Acevedo is a GGPoker pro and has written the seminal book Modern Poker Theory – Building an Unbeatable Strategy based on GTO Principles. Check it out at D&B Publishing and look for the upcoming Modern Poker Theory – The Tournament Workbook. You can follow Michael on X, and Instagram.
