Last week we talked about questions you can ask yourself to make calling down more effective. The goal was to make sure you are not paying people off too often while also helping you pick off more bluffs.
This week, we’re going to talk about questions you can ask yourself when you are deciding whether to bet.
Those questions are:
- What does my opponent likely not have?
- What is the purpose of my bet?
- Does my bet reveal my true hand strength?
- What is going to happen if I check?
Let’s take a hypothetical hand. You raise 
on the button, and the big blind calls. The board comes 
.
It checks to you, you fire a continuation bet, and your opponent calls. The turn is the 
and it checks to you.
Do you think you should fire again here or not?
Let’s go through the questions.
1. What does my opponent likely not have?
The first thing you should ask yourself is, “What does my opponent likely not have?”
Start with the best hands first.
I typically teach this to my students instead of having them think about their opponent’s entire range right away. Thinking about an entire range is difficult, but if we can eliminate enough of the best hands, that helps us quite a bit.
That tells us when we can bluff more and when we need to make smaller value bets.
In this hand, we already have multiple clues. Our opponent just called preflop instead of three-betting. That makes aces, kings, queens, and ace-king less likely.
Our opponent also checked and called on a board with straight draws and flush draws. Many players would check-raise sets and two pair there to get more money in with their hand and to protect their hand.
So it is a little more likely our opponent has a pair or a draw.
Additionally, some players would check-raise their best kings, which makes it a little more likely they have weaker pairs instead of top pair.
That gives us a much better idea of whether we should continue on this turn.
2. What is the purpose of my bet?
You should always ask yourself, “What is the purpose of my bet?”
The best poker players I have ever met, the ones who have paid their bills from this game for decades, often tell me they are not the smartest people.
But what I tell them is this: They might not be the smartest people in the world, but they are some of the most practical.
They have an uncanny ability to not lie to themselves. Every time they bet, they are realistic about why they are betting.
Ask yourself, “What is the point of my bet here?”
If you think it is a value bet, what worse hands are you getting value from?
If you think it is a bluff, what better hands are you trying to fold out?
There is another category of bet called equity denial. Sometimes you bet because your bet denies bluffing equity and drawing equity. We’ll get into that more later.
In this hand, if you bet the turn, what kind of bet are you making? I would say you are making a value bet the majority of the time.
Your opponent will likely still call with straight draws and flush draws. I am also not convinced a five or six is ready to fold.
Most people call too much in this era of poker, so you should strongly consider betting.
3. Does my bet reveal my true hand strength?
This is a more niche question.
Let’s say you bet one-third pot on this turn. Does that reveal anything?
Against better players, yes, it can. If you had two pair or a set on this board, with this many draws available, you would likely bet half pot or larger.
So what does your small bet look like?
It looks like a mediocre pair that is trying to get to a cheap showdown. That can cause some opponents to turn fives or sixes into bluffs and blast you right there. Not good.
Now, if you ask yourself, “If I bet half pot, does that still get called by weaker pairs and draws, while getting check-raised less?” that is a much better thought process.
You are thinking not just about betting, but about what your bet communicates.
That matters.
4. What happens if I check?
Finally, ask yourself, “What happens if I check here?”
If you check, it becomes pretty obvious that you usually do not have sets, two pairs, or top pair because most people would double barrel this turn with those hands. That makes it much more likely your opponent can realize bluff equity. It also allows your opponent to realize all their drawing equity. That is not good.
In general, when you are on the fence between a thin bet and a thin check, I recommend making the thin bet.
Most of your opponents are not that creative versus bets, and they do not check-raise bluff enough. Also, most people call too much, which means you are going to get more value than you might realize.
I hope these tips benefit you and your game
Alex Fitzgerald is a best-selling author published by D&B Poker. Check out Alex’s most recent book, ‘How to Beat Players Who Never Fold.’
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