Today we’re going to talk about five questions you can ask yourself before making a thinner call.
Those questions are:
- Does my opponent even bet worse here?
- How many bets are coming?
- Do people typically bluff enough in this situation?
- Do I even need to play this pot?
- And am I blocking anything?
Let's break it down
Let’s discuss how you can use each of these questions to make better decisions in close spots.
Let’s say you are 50 big blinds deep in a tournament. You call out of the big blind with K-To, and the board comes Q-T-5 rainbow.
You check, your opponent continuation bets, and you call.
The turn is an off-suit two.
You check, and your opponent bets 75% of the pot.
This is a situation where against some players, you would want to call. Against others, you would want to fold.
How do you make the right decision? Let’s get into it.
1. Does my opponent even bet worse here?
The first question you want to ask is simple: Can my opponent even bet worse here?
Sometimes I’ll be playing live, and I’ll have a really nice lady at the table. Or I’ll have a barbecue dad who is jolly, having a good time, and mostly playing passively. Or I’ll have a senior citizen who is at the card room for coffee and conversation.
A lot of these player types do not go out of their way to bluff people.
So in this turn spot, I will often just give them credit and fold.
Now, if I have the young guy who is trying to prove to everyone he is a pro, or the angry gambler type who looks like he might rob a liquor store later, that is a different player type.
Those players are more likely to have bluffs.
The first group of players is more likely to check back their straight draws and try to hit. The second group is more likely to fire with their straight draws and try to get you off your hand.
That is an important distinction.
You should also ask whether your opponent ever value bets worse. A lot of people are not going to fire T-J on this turn because many players do not value bet thinly enough.
Finally, ask whether your opponent has any pure bluffs in their range.
Are they capable of just blasting with nothing? You will see that more often from the young guys and the angry gamblers.
2. How many bets are coming?
The next question is: How often is this person going to fire the river, and what am I planning to do there?
A lot of people call the turn because they think they have the best hand enough of the time. But they completely neglect the fact that poker is a multi-street game.
I used to make this mistake all the time when I was a kid, and it cost me a lot of money.
So you need to ask yourself this question every chance you get.
There are some players who are trying to put together an aggressive game, but they do not really have the guts to triple-barrel bluff. Against them, you can call more liberally on the turn.
Then there are other players who are really about that life. They are willing to triple barrel you. Against those players, you need a river plan before you call the turn.
Do not call now and figure it out later. That is how you end up donating chips.
3. Do people typically bluff enough in this situation?
I always think it is a good idea to ask how many people really bluff enough in any given situation.
In this spot, if you have no reason to believe your opponent’s frequencies are out of whack, remember this:
Most people do not bluff enough. That should always be in the back of your mind.
If something feels off about the situation, it is rarely a disaster to fold a little too much when you believe your opponent does not have enough bluffs.
A lot of players torch money because they are worried about being exploited by people who are not actually exploiting them.
Do not pay someone off just because a solver told you a theoretical opponent could bluff. Ask whether this actual opponent is likely to find those bluffs.
4. Do I even need to play this pot?
This sounds like a broad question, but it needs to come up more often.
Sometimes you will be playing against talented competition, and the young pro who does not yet have a developed triple-barrel game might actually be one of the weaker spots at the table.
In that case, you do need to seriously consider calling the turn.
But other times, the situation is completely different. I had this happen deep in an online tournament the other night. I was running over the entire table and doing really well. Then I decided to get into a very thin call-down spot against the one other player at the table who could actually play ball.
Bad idea.
That was me not going through this process, and it ended up costing me.
You do not want to make the same mistake.
If there are easier spots at the table, you do not always need to take the thinnest possible edge against the toughest opponent.
Sometimes the best decision is to preserve your stack and keep attacking the players who are making obvious mistakes.
5. Am I blocking anything?
Finally, ask yourself what you are blocking.
In our example, did you notice that K-T blocks K-J? That matters because K-J is the open-ended straight draw that could be double barreling.
Blocking that hand does not help you.
It is always important to look at which hands you block and which hands you do not block because that can influence your decision.
Now, blockers usually should not be the entire reason you call or fold. They are not so powerful that they should override everything else.
But they do matter slightly, especially in close decisions.
You might notice that none of the questions I had you ask were, “What is theoretically correct against a perfect player?” or “What is my minimum defense frequency?”
Those are useful tools. I use them when I study on my own so I can become a better poker coach.
But in real poker lessons, I do not find that leading with those concepts produces better results for most of my clients.
I would much rather have you start with these five exploitative questions first.
They will get you closer to the right answer in the real games you are actually playing.
Alex Fitzgerald is a best-selling author published by D&B Poker. Check out Alex’s most recent book, ‘How to Beat Players Who Never Fold.’
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