Today we take a closer look at a crucial hand in Joao Vieira's run to a $4.6M tournament win, this time against Aleksejs Ponakovs. This hand, along with sims, can be found at Octopi Poker.
This is the third article in a series, following parts one and two. Sign up to Octopi Poker here.
Final table payouts & ICM implications
With only three players remaining and a pay jump of over a million dollars between 2nd and 3rd place, ICM considerations are crucial. Ye Wang, the extreme short stack with just 3.1bbs, is at immediate risk of elimination and must look for optimal spots to shove, double up, and increase his chances of laddering up in payouts.
Joao Vieira and Aleksejs Ponakovs, both sitting on 48 big blinds, with Joao slightly covering, should avoid unnecessary clashes and instead focus on pressuring Wang’s short stack.
Busting before him would be a major ICM disaster, so they must play cautiously in marginal spots. By doing so, they maximize their chances of securing at least second place while positioning themselves for a potential first-place finish.
Preflop action
We start the hand with blinds of 125K/250K and a 250K ante. Aleksejs (BN) has 48.8bbs and min-raises to 2bbs with 
, while Joao (BB), with 49bbs, calls with 
. Ye Wang in the SB folds.
Preflop range analysis takeaways
Aleksejs, on the BN, adopts a tight, risk-averse strategy due to ICM pressure, opening around 44% of his range. He mainly wants to avoid doubling up Ye Wang too easily, or ending up in a big pot postflop with Joao.
Joao, in the BB and the chip leader by a small margin, adopts a wide yet passive calling range, allowing him to realize equity while minimizing risk. He avoids excessive 3-betting, which could be costly given the ICM pressure and significant payout implications.
His polar 3-betting range includes strong value hands (JJ+, AQ+) that can continue against a 4-bet or all-in, along with bluff hands that lack playability but can pressure and fold out the opponent’s middling range.
This balance ensures his value 3-bets remain credible while leveraging ICM pressure, forcing Aleksejs to fold more frequently due to payout considerations.
The flop
Joao, BB: check
Aleksejs, BN: bet 1.6bbs, 29% of pot
Joao: call
The flop comes ace-high with two low cards, featuring a flush draw and a potential wheel straight. Let’s use Octopi’s Side-by-Side range explorer to study the flop strategy in more detail.
Aleksejs (BN) should be betting nearly his entire range here, using a sizing around 29% of the pot. His range includes all the top pairs, as well as sets, two pairs, and numerous underpairs — only missing 43s for a made wheel.
Joao, in the big blind, also holds most of the top pairs but notably lacks AK and AA. However, his range does include 43x at full frequency, which currently represents the nuts.
With both players holding strong hands in their range and the BTN's advantage on this board being relatively small, they must proceed with caution due to the significant ICM pressure.
Facing a small range bet of 1.6bbs, Joao should respond with a mix of calls and small raises (30%) due to his gutshot equity. A hand like 
would raise more often thanks to the additional flush draw, while his actual hand, , with just a backdoor flush draw, should raise only about 45% of the time. This time, he opts for the more passive line and chooses to call.
The turn
Joao, BB: check
Aleksejs, BN: check
The turn card is the 
, completing the flush draw from the flop. Both players can hold a wide range of flushes, though some of Joao's flush combinations are likely already involved in flop check-raises. Aleksejs, however, holds a slight advantage and can comfortably bet a large portion of his range without being exploited, typically using medium bet sizes (30-50% of the pot).
Also important to note that flushes are occasionally checked on the turn to avoid being capped on the river, allowing Joao the chance to exploit the situation.
Aleksejs' specific hand, , remains strong enough to bet for value at 50% of the pot, but he also wants to check about 35% of the time.
Aleksejs chooses to check this time, proceeding with caution, much like Joao did on the flop.
Here comes the river.
The river
Joao, BB: bet 8.8bbs, 101% of pot
Aleksejs, BN: fold
The river brings the 
, pairing the board and opening the possibility of full houses. Joao, holding a 0-equity hand, bets slightly over the pot, firing a big bluff. After a long tank, Aleksejs ultimately decides to fold.
The outcome of this hand has significant implications for the new chip leader, putting one player in prime position for a potential tournament victory.
Was Joao's bluff a punt, or did Aleksejs miss an obvious call? Let’s find out!
Joao's hand has no showdown value, only blocks potential flopped straights, and can't win the pot without bluffing. On the river, his range predominantly wants to bet with a wide mix of sizes, with 8.8 being the most aggressive. With 18% of his range being trash on the river, Joao must bet large sometimes for maximum fold equity and to maintain balance. To do so, he must also incorporate enough flushes, straights, trips, and top pairs in this line.
With his specific hand, , the solver predominantly favors betting 75% of the pot, while also mixing in 30% pot bets, with 101% pot bets used at a very low frequency.
The differences here are minimal, and the key takeaway is that Joao recognized the spot perfectly and applied a large bluff bet.
Meanwhile, Aleksejs' hand represents a clear call and, according to the solver, should never be folded. While it's relatively unlikely he'll beat Joao's value bets at this large size, his hand — top pair, particularly with the flush blocker — remains a strong candidate to catch the sizable number of bluffs.
Once again, Joao recognized the opportunity for a powerful river bluff, applying maximum pressure on his opponent. On the other hand, caution and stack preservation — along with the potential ICM implications — likely influenced Aleksejs’s decision-making process.
The conclusion
Joao Vieira’s victory in the $150K Triton Poker Tournament is a blend of calculated risk, strategic brilliance, and well-timed bluffs. His ability to read the game and his fearless approach earned him $4.61 million. While others played too cautiously and misread the meta, Vieira capitalized on the opportunity.
Tournaments always involve an element of luck, of course, and as we saw in this mini-series, no one is perfect. However, Vieira's skillful bluffs and psychological insight demonstrate that, more often than not, we can take our fate into our own hands.
With this win, Vieira’s live tournament earnings surpassed $19.8 million, cementing his place as Portugal's top tournament earner.
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